Cannibalisation

The more wind we build, the more it crashes its own wholesale price — and consumers top up the difference through the CfD levy. Cannibalisation is self-inflicted and baked in.

The capture price of wind (what the wholesale market pays per MWh when it's generating) has fallen relative to the time-weighted average wholesale price for a decade. As the fleet grows and concentrated wind hours flood the market, each new MWh earns less. CfD guarantees the difference back to the generator; consumers pay that difference via the levy. The mirror-image chart below shows the two lines moving in opposite directions by design — not by accident.

Charts

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  Capture ratio — wind cannibalises its own price

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  Capture-price ratio (capture price / time-weighted wholesale) falling over time by technology. AR1 wind levy per MWh rising in lockstep. Two sides of the same mechanism.

What to look at next

Then → Cost to see the levy side of the same equation, or → Reliability for why the concentrated-output hours happen in the first place.

Methodology

How every number on this page was computed → Cannibalisation methodology.